
When Nobel laureates gambled Wall Street, Long-Term Capital Management collapsed spectacularly. "When Genius Failed" reveals how brilliance, arrogance, and $1.25 trillion in leveraged positions nearly broke the global financial system - a cautionary tale still haunting quantitative investors today.
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Four Nobel laureates, legendary Wall Street traders, and the most sophisticated mathematical models money could buy-what could possibly go wrong? In August 1998, a Connecticut hedge fund with positions worth over $1 trillion nearly brought the global financial system to its knees. This wasn't some reckless startup run by cowboys. Long-Term Capital Management was the most intellectually decorated investment firm ever assembled, a collection of financial geniuses who genuinely believed they had conquered risk itself. Their spectacular implosion became the defining cautionary tale of modern finance, yet its lessons remain hauntingly unlearned. John Meriwether built his reputation at Salomon Brothers on a deceptively simple philosophy: ride your losses until they turn into gains. The insight came from classic arbitrage-finding two nearly identical securities trading at different prices, buying the cheap one, shorting the expensive one, and waiting for the gap to close. It didn't matter whether markets rose or fell; all that mattered was convergence. In 1979, when securities dealer J.F. Eckstein faced bankruptcy from arbitrage trades gone wrong, Meriwether convinced Salomon to absorb his positions. Though initially hemorrhaging money, the prices eventually converged exactly as predicted, earning substantial profits and cementing Meriwether's mystique. This philosophy would eventually threaten the entire global economy.
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